Journal: Caitlin's Visit to Hamilton.
Caitlin came over on Wednesday for an interview at the Waikato University for teaching. The 3 part course could last as long as 5 years depending on what areas she takes. She will probably take initially,early childhood which covers 3 years with a possible extension into the primary area of education; which last up to the 5 year mark.
Initially, she thought she would like to be an architect, she liked and was good at art, maths, computer technical drawing and was also good at English but the course parts were long, taking up to 7 years. Her second choice was in the area of children. Both courses can be taken at the Tauranga Campus. Living with sister Ashlee in a Tauranga house belonging to Mum would suit everyone, nicely.
I do hope she gets a place, like the UK, here in NZ, the placings are becoming limited due to the present recession, thankfully not as bad as most countries.
We met her lunch before she had to go and meet old friends at Sacred Heart School and also her old matron at the school boarding house. The Matron had a soft spot for Caitlin and her compassion for the younger girls during her years there. Caitlin said matron's her eyes began to water as her visit ended. If it had not been for Caitlin's leaving for Tauranga Otomoutai College, she was earmarked for the place of the boarding house Head Girl during her 7th form year.
I hope Caitlin gets her place at the University. Like I found Vicky, she has a feeling for the young ones.
Friday, September 30, 2011
Thursday, September 15, 2011
I may have missed sending this piece from a few weeks ago. I found it in draft items.
At Port Kembla. The Steel Works Hotel
First draft:
In the early afternoon we left our sad, lonesome berth at the Phosphate wharf on the Brisbane River; 2 tugs from the Port lower down the river came up to pulled us off the wharf . Our pilot was aboard and at his command , the tugs pulled us off the wharf and then at a further command the tugs slowly pulled us 180 degrees round to point us down river and towards the open sea. We now picked up speed and soon passed Port Brisbane on our starboard, (right-hand side) and continued into open water. There waiting for us was the pilot boat ready to pick up our pilot.
I used to usually watch over the side as the pilot, quickly shaking the captain's hand turned, and as quickly descended the rope ladder, then pausing at the bottom as the pilot boat, keeping pace with us, slowly nearing the rope ladder, the pilot ready to hop from ladder to boat in a neat, swift motion. I was not the only one who watched the pilot’s departure, the officer of the watch, standing on the flying bridge would be there, too and usually members of the crew would pause to watch as well. It was a kind of ritual, it seemed to be done, always.
We now headed in a southerly direction. In 3 days or so we should be nearing Port Kembla, 450 nautical miles to steam.
I didn’t send an early ETA warning, with only 3 days sailing time. The Captain would decide when to do that. The message duly came from the Bridge a few hours before our arrival was due.
We picked up our pilot who took through the 2 concrete arms of the harbour and we berthed not far from the Steel Works. Again we were here for in the vicinity of 12-14 days, while unloaded what was left of the phosphate rock cargo.
Port Kembla was just a small town with one main street, Wentworth St., as far as I remember in 1952. I understand now Port Kembla is engulfed by the nearby city of Wollongong.
I well remember the one main street with the Steelworks Hotel at the top and the men’s toilets across the road on the way back to the wharf. The main street is still there today and so is the Steel Works Pub, and across the road, is that the toilets peeking out through the bushes or is it my imagination, when peering on Google Earth? The road seems much better than the one I remember in 1952.
I also remember the milk bar (now its called a coffee bar) a short way down the main street were we would often drop in, with its big shiny American jukebox which played all the latest tunes when a coin was inserted in the slot and then you pressed your selection(s). If the place was crowded you would probably have to wait for your selection to come up, they came up in selection order.
When we finished unloading we found our next port of call was to be Ocean Island, also like Nauru, almost on the equator.
Port Kembla Main Street - old and now. 2011
Port Kembla - Wentworth Street - (Main Street) circa 1952?
Journal: What if it did happen?
The Euro, it makes you think. That is if you read the piece from the Telegraph above. Maybe, best not to read it. When the editor of the Telegraph recommends it, it could be serious. Greece is close to collapse apparently, but there is nothing you or I could be done about it.
Moving on: Pat is back on her feet after 5 days of fasting and her old self once more. Very pale and taking food again. I'm glad of that.
It seems the equinox gales have arrived a little early this year, sun, rain and wind, sometimes all together. Not good for the Rugby games down here in NZ.
Anthony said he saw some of the ABs strolling down the street the other day. They are busy training down here in Hamilton for their match with Japan shortly. Tickets are sold out. Japan is improving with an ex-All Black training them.
Been using Google Chrome and quite liking it after many years of plain old Google. The only thing is it cannot compete with "IE Favorites" which I use a great deal. I will need to have them both on my desktop.
Pat can't keep her eyes off Kate and Eddie photos especially Eddie "walking soon" holding the chair and Kate finding there is a whole new world sitting up. Kaeden is at holding the chair stage here. Who will walk first I wonder.
The Euro, it makes you think. That is if you read the piece from the Telegraph above. Maybe, best not to read it. When the editor of the Telegraph recommends it, it could be serious. Greece is close to collapse apparently, but there is nothing you or I could be done about it.
Moving on: Pat is back on her feet after 5 days of fasting and her old self once more. Very pale and taking food again. I'm glad of that.
It seems the equinox gales have arrived a little early this year, sun, rain and wind, sometimes all together. Not good for the Rugby games down here in NZ.
Anthony said he saw some of the ABs strolling down the street the other day. They are busy training down here in Hamilton for their match with Japan shortly. Tickets are sold out. Japan is improving with an ex-All Black training them.
Been using Google Chrome and quite liking it after many years of plain old Google. The only thing is it cannot compete with "IE Favorites" which I use a great deal. I will need to have them both on my desktop.
Pat can't keep her eyes off Kate and Eddie photos especially Eddie "walking soon" holding the chair and Kate finding there is a whole new world sitting up. Kaeden is at holding the chair stage here. Who will walk first I wonder.
Journal:
Euro: Money Troubles.
By Andrew Lilico
Andrew Lilico is an Economist with Europe Economics, and a member of the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee. He was formerly the Chief Economist of Policy Exchange.
What might happen.
Many statements from senior eurozone policymakers treat the continuation of the euro and continuation of the European Union as much the same thing. Some of those commenting upon these events dispute that. They point out that the Single Market was there before the euro. They imagine that schemes in which Germany and few other countries form an "Eastern euro" whilst France leads a "Western euro" would be compatible with the continuation of the Single Market.
They are wrong. And it is actually the fact that eurozone breakup (by which I mean any arrangement in which any of France, Germany and Italy ceases to be in a currency union with the others – Greece's quasi-inevitable exit from the euro would not be what I mean by "eurozone breakup") would very probably lead to collapse of the EU that generates most of the costs of that catastophe scenario, rather than the costs of breaking up the euro itself. It is a grave mistake to imagine that just because the Single Market existed before the euro (and could surely have continued for some considerable time if the euro had never happened) it therefore follows that the Single Market could continue if the euro were to break up.
To understand why Eurozone breakup leads to EU breakup, let's for the sake of the discussion assume that, post-euro, each former eurozone member would establish its own currency. (Nothing fundamental changes if there are other currency unions, but it makes describing things simpler if we set that aside.) The way each country would establish its own currency would be (overnight) to pass a law declaring that all contracts established under its national law would be re-denominated from euros into the new national currency (Mark, New Franc, New Lira, etc.). Any country the currency of which seemed likely to devalue would also introduce capital controls, so that there was not capital flight in fear of devaluation. Amongst the traditionally higher-inflation countries, the level of devaluation required to create the sort of one-way bet that would not induce capital flight would be so high as to generate inflation - a number of such countries would probably prefer to try to keep their currencies slightly strong and introduce capital controls.
The threat of capital flight would be enduring, so capital controls would not be simply a matter of a day or two. Capital controls eliminate one of the four pillars of the Single Market – namely the free movement of capital. That leaves the free movement of labour, goods and services. With the collapse of the euro, a number of states would be perceived as likely to enter very serious recessions, even just from the costs of euro collapse, such as the collapse of their banking systems – probably accompanied by their brief nationalisation and the introduction of martial law (in violation of a number of human rights provisions under EU Treaties). Fearing these recessions, there could be large exoduses of workers into states perceived as less likely to have recessions (e.g. Germany, Finland). The states into which people would want to go would probably close their borders, to avoid swamping; the states from which they were leaving would probably close their borders, to prevent their highest-value workers going in a brain drain. Thus, free movement of labour would collapse.
The large recessions associated with these events would be unevenly distributed across parts of the economy. A number of states would be very likely to respond by introducing extensive subsidies of certain industries, in violation of state aids rules. They would also almost certainly attempt to use government procurement to boost domestic suppliers at the expense of foreign contractors. Such state aids and preferential procurement would constitute non-tariff barriers, destroying the free movement of goods and services.
These are just a few illustrations of how the Single Market would directly be undermined by the natural responses of countries to collapse of the euro. And that is before we even start to consider the huge recriminations and antipathy that would arise. Governments, facing recessions at home, will naturally seek to blame the governments of other countries. We see this already in the over-heated rhetoric in the Greek and German press. Actual collapse of the euro would magnify this tenfold.
The EU is most unlikely to continue without the euro. Sudden and disorderly collapse of the EU would induce a massive further phase of recession. I happen to think that the UBS figures of 20-25 percent contraction in GDP for strong countries and 50 percent for weak countries are somewhat emotional. But it would certainly involve a recession on a scale beyond modern experience or comprehension in a Western democracy.
Let's not go there.
Euro: Money Troubles.
By Andrew Lilico
Andrew Lilico is an Economist with Europe Economics, and a member of the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee. He was formerly the Chief Economist of Policy Exchange.
What might happen.
Many statements from senior eurozone policymakers treat the continuation of the euro and continuation of the European Union as much the same thing. Some of those commenting upon these events dispute that. They point out that the Single Market was there before the euro. They imagine that schemes in which Germany and few other countries form an "Eastern euro" whilst France leads a "Western euro" would be compatible with the continuation of the Single Market.
They are wrong. And it is actually the fact that eurozone breakup (by which I mean any arrangement in which any of France, Germany and Italy ceases to be in a currency union with the others – Greece's quasi-inevitable exit from the euro would not be what I mean by "eurozone breakup") would very probably lead to collapse of the EU that generates most of the costs of that catastophe scenario, rather than the costs of breaking up the euro itself. It is a grave mistake to imagine that just because the Single Market existed before the euro (and could surely have continued for some considerable time if the euro had never happened) it therefore follows that the Single Market could continue if the euro were to break up.
To understand why Eurozone breakup leads to EU breakup, let's for the sake of the discussion assume that, post-euro, each former eurozone member would establish its own currency. (Nothing fundamental changes if there are other currency unions, but it makes describing things simpler if we set that aside.) The way each country would establish its own currency would be (overnight) to pass a law declaring that all contracts established under its national law would be re-denominated from euros into the new national currency (Mark, New Franc, New Lira, etc.). Any country the currency of which seemed likely to devalue would also introduce capital controls, so that there was not capital flight in fear of devaluation. Amongst the traditionally higher-inflation countries, the level of devaluation required to create the sort of one-way bet that would not induce capital flight would be so high as to generate inflation - a number of such countries would probably prefer to try to keep their currencies slightly strong and introduce capital controls.
The threat of capital flight would be enduring, so capital controls would not be simply a matter of a day or two. Capital controls eliminate one of the four pillars of the Single Market – namely the free movement of capital. That leaves the free movement of labour, goods and services. With the collapse of the euro, a number of states would be perceived as likely to enter very serious recessions, even just from the costs of euro collapse, such as the collapse of their banking systems – probably accompanied by their brief nationalisation and the introduction of martial law (in violation of a number of human rights provisions under EU Treaties). Fearing these recessions, there could be large exoduses of workers into states perceived as less likely to have recessions (e.g. Germany, Finland). The states into which people would want to go would probably close their borders, to avoid swamping; the states from which they were leaving would probably close their borders, to prevent their highest-value workers going in a brain drain. Thus, free movement of labour would collapse.
The large recessions associated with these events would be unevenly distributed across parts of the economy. A number of states would be very likely to respond by introducing extensive subsidies of certain industries, in violation of state aids rules. They would also almost certainly attempt to use government procurement to boost domestic suppliers at the expense of foreign contractors. Such state aids and preferential procurement would constitute non-tariff barriers, destroying the free movement of goods and services.
These are just a few illustrations of how the Single Market would directly be undermined by the natural responses of countries to collapse of the euro. And that is before we even start to consider the huge recriminations and antipathy that would arise. Governments, facing recessions at home, will naturally seek to blame the governments of other countries. We see this already in the over-heated rhetoric in the Greek and German press. Actual collapse of the euro would magnify this tenfold.
The EU is most unlikely to continue without the euro. Sudden and disorderly collapse of the EU would induce a massive further phase of recession. I happen to think that the UBS figures of 20-25 percent contraction in GDP for strong countries and 50 percent for weak countries are somewhat emotional. But it would certainly involve a recession on a scale beyond modern experience or comprehension in a Western democracy.
Let's not go there.
Monday, September 12, 2011
Journal: Blogger changes.
Google is changing Blogger over to its Google Chrome system so over the next few days I will be trialling the system changes. For blog reception blogs should, as I understand it be received in the normal way. At my end pages look different but at the reception end they will look just the same.
Journal: What is happening here.
Not much at present. Still walking almost everyday. Very enjoyable, the sun shines every morning. The long spell of sunny weather is coming to an end and normal southern hemisphere spring weather is due to take its place.
Pat has not been too well for the last 2 days and spent a good part of the time in bed. She thinks it is due to her gall bladder recurring troubles. She has been vomiting quite a bit. So if you do not here from her, that is the reason.
OldEric: my funny motto, a new piece has just been posted. Reverted back to no pictures. Pictures are a nice addition to the blog but it takes a long time to search them out, sort them and insert. Quite a few come via Google. May try a separate page.
Google is changing Blogger over to its Google Chrome system so over the next few days I will be trialling the system changes. For blog reception blogs should, as I understand it be received in the normal way. At my end pages look different but at the reception end they will look just the same.
Journal: What is happening here.
Not much at present. Still walking almost everyday. Very enjoyable, the sun shines every morning. The long spell of sunny weather is coming to an end and normal southern hemisphere spring weather is due to take its place.
Pat has not been too well for the last 2 days and spent a good part of the time in bed. She thinks it is due to her gall bladder recurring troubles. She has been vomiting quite a bit. So if you do not here from her, that is the reason.
OldEric: my funny motto, a new piece has just been posted. Reverted back to no pictures. Pictures are a nice addition to the blog but it takes a long time to search them out, sort them and insert. Quite a few come via Google. May try a separate page.
Monday, September 05, 2011
Journal: Father's Day
Yesterday was Father's Day. Gillian, Ian and Anthony made contact. Gillian phoned early in the morning from Whitianga and wished me a happy day and said to look out for something in the mail, as always a lotto ticket and said as usual, to let her know if I won anything. Anthony arrived shortly afterwards to accompany me on my usual a morning walk. As usual he had a funny card for me, I don't know how he finds them all. No matter whether it is Christmas, my birthday or anything else, he always comes up with a funny card. I enjoy them. I took him along one of the nice, quiet routes I often take around St Andrew's here in Hamilton and we had an interesting and varied conversation which I enjoyed. When we arrived back we went together with Pat to visit a small cafe, just down the road and had coffee and muffins. Anthony could not stay long, painting work was waiting in the bathroom. Nice of him to take the time off and come down wish me, a happy Father's Day.
Ian phoned this evening from Wales which was a pleasant surprise, for over there Father's Day is on a different day. He must have made a note of the day. Like Anthony we had a pleasant and interesting conversation about the Twins, the front patio he is building and the sad demise of Vicky's elder sister in Swansea.
As I went on my morning walk this morning, I thought about yesterday, I thought of our family. Pat and I could not have been blessed with 3 better offspring.
Yesterday was Father's Day. Gillian, Ian and Anthony made contact. Gillian phoned early in the morning from Whitianga and wished me a happy day and said to look out for something in the mail, as always a lotto ticket and said as usual, to let her know if I won anything. Anthony arrived shortly afterwards to accompany me on my usual a morning walk. As usual he had a funny card for me, I don't know how he finds them all. No matter whether it is Christmas, my birthday or anything else, he always comes up with a funny card. I enjoy them. I took him along one of the nice, quiet routes I often take around St Andrew's here in Hamilton and we had an interesting and varied conversation which I enjoyed. When we arrived back we went together with Pat to visit a small cafe, just down the road and had coffee and muffins. Anthony could not stay long, painting work was waiting in the bathroom. Nice of him to take the time off and come down wish me, a happy Father's Day.
Ian phoned this evening from Wales which was a pleasant surprise, for over there Father's Day is on a different day. He must have made a note of the day. Like Anthony we had a pleasant and interesting conversation about the Twins, the front patio he is building and the sad demise of Vicky's elder sister in Swansea.
As I went on my morning walk this morning, I thought about yesterday, I thought of our family. Pat and I could not have been blessed with 3 better offspring.
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